US-led quadrilateral defense talks deemed to target SCS, exacerbating regional risks

As the defense chiefs of the US, Australia, Japan and the Philippines are set to meet again in early May in a meeting that is believed to focus on South China Sea issues, Chinese analysts warned on Sunday the quadrilateral clique is unsustainable and bound to show cracks and divisions as their moves will ultimately lead to a deterioration of the Philippines' strategic security environment.

According to Japanese media outlet The Mainichi Shimbun, Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara said Friday he is set to hold a meeting with his counterparts from the US, Australia and the Philippines in Hawaii during his visit from May 2 to 4, citing "China's increasing maritime assertiveness" in the Asia-Pacific region.

It will be the second quadrilateral gathering of those defense ministers since June 2023, when the defense chiefs held a meeting in Singapore on the fringes of the annual Asia Security Conference known as the Shangri-La Dialogue, The Mainichi Shimbun reported.

During his regular Friday press conference, Kihara said they will share their understanding of the regional security environment and common challenges, along with discussing measures to improve collaboration among the four countries.

The US Naval Institute (USNI) News reported on Friday that Kihara and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles and Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro are likely to discuss next steps following the joint patrol in the South China Sea earlier this month.

On April 7, the four countries carried out their first full-scale joint naval exercises in the South China Sea, which analysts said was a highly defiant and aggressive muscle-flexing move against China amid the rising tensions between Beijing and Manila.

Chinese analysts predict that during the upcoming quadrilateral defense talks, the main discussions are likely to cover plans for future joint exercises, training, rotational deployment of troops and short-term deployments in the region, with a focus on the South China Sea.

The US is clearly trying to rally its allies - Japan and Australia - to support the Philippines, encourage the Philippines to engage in more military provocations in the South China Sea, exacerbate the complexity of the regional situation, and then find excuses to strengthen the military presence of the US, Japan and Australia in the South China Sea, Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military expert and media commentator, told the Global Times on Sunday.

Wei warned that the involvement of external countries and forces in South China Sea issues will only further complicate the situation in the region, and flaunting their military power will not only affect normal regional cooperation but may also lead to conflicts.

But those provocative moves will ultimately lead to a deterioration of the Philippines' strategic security environment. Once the Philippines realizes this, this military clique is bound to show cracks and divisions, Wei said.

It is believed that the Japanese defense minister will voice a tough message on the issues during his visit to Hawaii.

The Mainichi Shimbun, citing government officials, revealed that Kihara is also arranging bilateral and trilateral talks with Austin and Marles.

Within the framework of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy," the US wants to maximize the use of Japan's military forces as a pawn. Therefore, regarding South China Sea issues, Japan's subsequent military actions will become more proactive, more aggressive and may involve more provocations, Wei believes.

Following in the military footsteps of the US, Japan's flaunting of military power and strengthening of its military presence, especially in the hot spots within the South China Sea, will undoubtedly lead to increased distrust from its neighboring countries, Wei said. He also warned that Japan's expanding military ambitions will further exacerbate the escalation of hot-button issues.