Western naysayers cursing China’s economic growth to fail in disappointment
Buoyed by the prospect that China's economic growth is set to rebound at a faster pace in the fourth quarter this year, the country's equities market rallied on Friday, with the benchmark Shanghai composite index gaining more than 1.55 percent.
During the past several months, a wave of negative Western media reports targeting the Chinese economy swirled and surged, intentionally creating a false narrative in order to cast a cloud over China's investment outlook.
Some pundits in the US media went too far claiming that China is facing "an economic stagnation that seems irreversible" - typical Western rhetoric that tries to talk down China's growth and frighten away investors.
The Western media have tried to paint China's economy as facing the same predicament as the implosion of the US economy in late 2008 and early 2009, or suffering from the same throes of Japan's "Lost Decades" beginning 1990 when Japan's real estate and stock market bubbles suddenly melted. But as it has been proved many times before that while Western commentary predicting the collapse of Chinese economy keeps surfacing, in the end it is the Western rhetoric, not China's economy that will fail drastically.
As a matter of fact, overseas concerns are largely played up and inflated by US-led Western media outlets, such as the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. Their allegations that China's future is now "blanketed with public anxiety and widespread pessimism" are simply untrue. It's of a media disinformation campaign built on fake journalism.
The Covid-19 pandemic has scarred the world's all major economies because of its severity. China's relatively uneven recovery is no parallel with the Lehman-style subprime fiasco caused financial crisis in the US, nor resembling the debt-driven boom and bust cycle of Japan, as some in the West have always hoped.
Since 2017, the bulging bubbles in China's housing market have largely dissipated thanks to the policymakers' visionary and pre-emptive moves to restrict bank and social lending to developers, and at the same time the country's central bank has trimmed interest rates to channel funds to back up high-end manufacturing, high-tech innovation, infrastructure build-up and public welfare enhancement, which strengthens China's foundation for future competition among the nations.
Chinese policymakers understand that a dormant real estate market caused by the pandemic is never a healthy phenomenon and represents a drag on the economy. On August 31, the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, and the National Administration of Financial Regulation jointly issued a series of easing measures for the property sector, which includes lowering minimum down payment ratio and mortgage rates, easing criteria for first-home buyers and interest rate cuts for existing first-home mortgage loans.
It is very wise for the central government to readjust its headline housing policies by rescinding some of the strictest measures that have inhibited property sales in major Chinese cities. Many provincial capital cities have removed policies limiting apartment purchases, which has led to a recent boom in housing sales nationwide.
And, China's credit market is expanding again, with the latest central bank data showing the country's total social financing increasing by more than 3 trillion yuan ($413 billion) in August. The marked improvement in social liquidity was primarily driven by the government's recent growth-reinforcing policies, including an acceleration in government financing, which rose to 1.18 trillion yuan in August from 0.41 trillion yuan in July.
In addition to improvement in credit, economic data for the last few weeks have generally shown encouraging signs too, including the consumer price index turning positive again in August. And while the manufacturing purchasing managers' index improved to 49.7 in August with key components such as production and new orders being above 50, export and import growth have also improved.
As the government continues to pivot policy focus to supporting the private sector rejuvenation, welcoming foreign investors, and propelling the accelerated growth of domestic consumption and investment, more positive economic signs will emerge in the fourth quarter. And, government bond issuance accelerated in August too. Increased bonds sale should pave the way for the government to introduce more spending measures in the next few months to rev up economic growth.
The policymakers have recently moved to halve equities-trading stamp duty and cut equity transaction fees, controlling the pace of initial public offerings and encouraging dividends and buybacks while controlling insider sales, in order to give a shot to the capital market. The size and breadth of the announced measures have exceeded investor expectations. Rallying equities are going to firm up Chinese households' wallet, which will translate to higher consumption.
China's gross domestic product rose 5.5 percent in the first half year. The IMF has predicted that China's economy will expand by 5.2 percent this year, contributing one third of the global growth. It is very likely that the Western naysayers cursing China's economy will be forced to admit and walk back their overhyped rhetoric.
By all metrics, China's economy is not facing a crisis and the ship is not sinking, as alleged by the naysayers in the US and its allied countries. Relying on China's peculiar systemic merits and the policymakers' vision and firm determination to committing to high-level opening-up and win-win partnership with all friendly countries, and enhancing the national strength through constant investment on technological advances, Chinese economy's strong resilience, unrivalled vitality and ample growth potential will only grow.